I believe the 530 has a 1.1v slot. However, PCIe 3.0 is backwards compatible with 2.0 or 1.1. There should definitely be a noticeable difference between the GT 430 and GTX 650 if your going to use its power. Almost all new video cards today have HDMI on them. However, you may want to watch whether your getting the mini hdmi or full size. I had a 530 and it was very quiet. Neither the CPU or case fan made any sound that would be considered annoying. You do not want to change the case fan to one that has a lower CFM just because it may be more quiet. The fan you have is controlled by the motherboard and only increases in speed if needed. Changing the CPU fan may cause an error message to happen also. The fan on the GT 430 could be loud. I find smaller fans on the smaller cards to be louder than larger fans on higher performance cards.
Nvidia or AMD as it is now is a matter of personal preference. I just find Nvidia drivers easier to deal with than the AMD drivers. I usually evaluate cost versus performance and go from there. I determine how much I want to spend and then pick the best performance card for the price. Your next step up from the GTX 650 is probably going to be the AMD HD 7770. A small step down from the GTX 650 is the AMD HD 7750. Brand is also a personal preference. I tend to like EVGA with Nvidia and Sapphire with AMD. The HIS HD 7750 with the iCooler is very popular though. This HD 7770 from Sapphire HERE is very popular. There are just a lot of choices.
